Turkey vs Italy Prediction & Match Preview
KlinPredict brings you this Turkey vs Italy prediction, covering the UEFA Nations League Group A1 clash at Yuzuncu Yil Ataturk Stadyumu in Bursa on Monday, September 28, 2026, kickoff 21:45 local time (TSI). It’s matchday 2 of the group, and both sides come into it needing a reset after losing their opening fixtures on matchday 1.
Turkey vs Italy Match Details
| Competition | UEFA Nations League, Group A1, Matchday 2 |
| Date | Monday, September 28, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 21:45 local time (TSI) |
| Venue | Yuzuncu Yil Ataturk Stadyumu, Bursa |
| Home team | Turkey |
| Away team | Italy |
| TV (Turkey) | atv, live and free to air |
KlinPredict’s Key Turkey vs Italy Predictions
| Market | KlinPredict Pick | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Match Winner (1X2) | Italy to Win | 🟡 Moderate |
| Double Chance | Italy Win or Draw (X2) | 🟢 High |
| Both Teams to Score (BTTS) | No | 🟡 Moderate |
| Over/Under 2.5 Goals | Under 2.5 | 🟡 Moderate to High |
| Correct Score | 1-0 to Italy | 🟡 Moderate |
Confirmed Absences Shaping This Turkey vs Italy Preview
Both sides go into this match without a key player, and both absences genuinely change how each team is likely to line up. Turkey will be without midfielder Orkun Kokcu, a regular starter whose absence removes a significant piece of their midfield structure. Italy, meanwhile, are missing three players from their matchday 1 squad: Antonio Vergara, Nicolo Fagioli, and Sebastiano Esposito. As of the most recent team news available (26 September 2026), both sides are expected to set up in a 4-2-3-1, the preferred formation of Turkey boss Vincenzo Montella and Italy’s Roberto Mancini respectively.
Turkey Form Ahead of Turkey vs Italy
Turkey opened their Nations League campaign with a 0-1 home defeat to France on September 25 at Kocaeli Stadyumu, with Kylian Mbappe scoring the only goal before he was substituted through injury. That result leaves Turkey on 0 points after one match, sitting third of four teams in Group A1. There is a genuine positive to point to, though: Turkey’s most recent match at this specific venue, Yuzuncu Yil Ataturk Stadyumu in Bursa, was a 2-0 win over Bulgaria in 2026 World Cup European qualifying, so the ground itself has recently been a happy hunting ground for the national team.
Italy Form Ahead of Turkey vs Italy
Italy’s Nations League campaign also started poorly, a 0-2 home defeat to Belgium on matchday 1 that leaves them bottom of Group A1 on 0 points, separated from Turkey only by a worse goal difference. Both nations were blanked in their opening match, meaning neither side’s attack has found the net yet in this competition.
Turkey vs Italy H2H: UEFA Nations League Group A1 Table
| Team | Pld | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| France | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| Belgium | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| Italy | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| Turkey | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
For live standings, full fixtures, and squad news direct from the competition organiser, see the official UEFA Nations League Group A1 standings.
Turkey vs Italy Historical Head to Head
In this Turkey vs Italy H2H, Italy have the clear historical upper hand. The two sides’ best known recent competitive meeting came at Euro 2020 (played in 2021), when Italy won the tournament’s opening match 3-0 in Rome, with an own goal from Merih Demiral followed by strikes from Ciro Immobile and Lorenzo Insigne. Since then, the two sides have met in friendlies rather than competitive fixtures, most recently a goalless draw in Bologna in June 2024. Across their recorded recent meetings, Turkey have yet to beat Italy.
Turkey vs Italy Match Analysis
Both sides head into matchday 2 having failed to score at all in their opener, a detail that matters more here than the final scorelines alone suggest. Turkey’s midfield will look different without Orkun Kokcu, while Italy’s setup shifts without three players who featured in their squad for matchday 1. Turkey’s case for a positive result rests on home advantage and a genuinely strong recent record at this specific Bursa venue. Italy’s case rests on a head to head record that has favoured them for years, even if their current squad is missing some depth.
Turkey vs Italy Prediction: Our Verdict
KlinPredict’s headline pick: Italy to Win
Confidence: Moderate
Italy’s historical dominance in this fixture, including a comfortable win the last time these sides met in a competitive match, edges them into favourites even with three players unavailable. It is not a high confidence selection, though, since Turkey have a real home advantage at this specific stadium and both teams are equally starved for their first points and first goal of the competition.
The Five Market Predictions Explained
Match Winner: Italy to Win. Their head to head advantage and slightly greater squad depth, even without three players, tip this narrowly in their favour.
Double Chance: Italy Win or Draw (X2). Given how close both sides currently sit in the table and how similar their opening results were, a straight win prediction alone feels riskier than adding this layer of protection.
Both Teams to Score: No. Neither side scored in their opening match, and a cagey, low key affair between two teams under early pressure looks the more likely shape of this game.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals: Under 2.5. Both teams were shut out on matchday 1, and the sides’ most recent head to head meeting also finished goalless.
Correct Score: 1-0 to Italy. This reflects a tight, low scoring match decided by a single moment of quality, in keeping with how cautious both sides are likely to be after their respective matchday 1 defeats.
Final Verdict: Turkey vs Italy Prediction
Both Turkey and Italy arrive in Bursa looking to bounce back from opening defeats, and neither side has found the net yet in this Nations League campaign. Turkey’s home advantage at a venue where they’ve recently performed well is a real factor, but Italy’s stronger head to head record and the general pattern of tight, low scoring recent meetings between these two nations gives the visitors a narrow edge in what should be a cautious, tactical contest.
KlinPredict headline prediction: Italy to Win
Best supporting markets: Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS: No
Correct Score: 1-0
Prediction Methodology
This Turkey vs Italy prediction draws on matchday 1 results, confirmed team news including both sides’ absentees, the sides’ recent head to head record, and the current Group A1 table. Where information wasn’t confirmed by the sources checked, such as final starting lineups, which aren’t announced this far out, it has been left out rather than guessed at. All information in this preview is current as of 26 September 2026 and may change closer to kickoff as official team news is confirmed.
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