The Czech Republic and Croatia begin their 2026/27 UEFA Nations League campaigns with a meeting at Fortuna Arena in Prague on Saturday, September 26. The match is part of League A Group 3, which also contains England and Spain. UEFA’s 2026/27 Nations League league phase begins in September, with the group stage running through November.
The Czech Republic enter a new era under Spanish coach Santi Denia, who was appointed in July and is taking charge of the national team for the first time in the Nations League. Croatia, meanwhile, begin their campaign under returning head coach Slaven Bilić.
Czech Republic vs Croatia Match Details
- Competition: UEFA Nations League, League A – Group 3
- Date: Saturday, September 26, 2026
- Kickoff: 20:45 local time
- Venue: Fortuna Arena, Prague, Czech Republic
- Home team: Czech Republic
- Away team: Croatia
The Czech Football Association confirms the fixture for September 26 at 20:45 at Fortuna Arena in Prague.
KlinPredict’s Key Predictions for Czech Republic vs Croatia
| Market | KlinPredict Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Match Winner (1X2) | Croatia to Win | 🟡 Moderate |
| Double Chance | Croatia Win or Draw (X2) | 🟢 High |
| Both Teams to Score (BTTS) | Yes | 🟢 High |
| Over/Under 2.5 Goals | Over 2.5 | 🟡 Moderate |
| Correct Score | 1-2 to Croatia | 🟡 Moderate |
Czech Republic Form
The Czech Republic come into the Nations League after a disappointing 2026 World Cup group-stage campaign. They lost 2-1 to South Korea, drew 1-1 with South Africa and suffered a 3-0 defeat against Mexico, finishing bottom of their group with one point.
Their most recent five results are:
W (2-1 v Kosovo) · W (3-1 v Guatemala) · L (1-2 v South Korea) · D (1-1 v South Africa) · L (0-3 v Mexico)
That gives Czech Republic two wins, one draw and two defeats across their last five matches.
The change of coach adds another variable. Santi Denia was appointed in July and retained much of the World Cup squad, but several important players have subsequently withdrawn through injury.
The Czech squad has lost David Zima, Tomáš Vlček, David Jurásek, Lukáš Provod, Tomáš Chorý and Denis Višinský from the original selection because of injuries. Daniel Vašulín and Jiří Sláma were among the players subsequently called up.
Patrik Schick has also retired from international football following the World Cup, leaving Czech Republic with a considerably different attacking setup.
Croatia Form
Croatia arrive with a stronger recent sequence. Their last five recorded matches are:
W (2-1 v Slovenia) · W (4-2 v England) · W (1-0 v Panama) · W (2-1 v Ghana) · L (1-2 v Portugal)
That gives Croatia four wins from their last five matches.
Croatia’s World Cup campaign included victories over Panama and Ghana before a 4-2 defeat to England, and they subsequently lost 2-1 to Portugal in the knockout stage.
The Croatian Football Federation’s latest Nations League squad includes experienced players such as Luka Modrić, Mateo Kovačić, Joško Gvardiol, Ivan Perišić, Andrej Kramarić and Ante Budimir.
Croatia have therefore retained a significant amount of experience while entering the new Nations League campaign under Bilić.
Head-to-Head
Croatia have the historical advantage in this fixture.
The two countries have met five times in the modern head-to-head record used by current match databases, with Croatia winning twice and the other three matches ending in draws. Czech Republic have yet to beat Croatia.
The most recent competitive meetings came during the 2026 World Cup qualifying cycle. The two sides drew their first meeting before Croatia took the return fixture, continuing Croatia’s unbeaten record against Czech Republic.
Their most famous previous meeting came at Euro 2016, when Czech Republic recovered from two goals down to draw 2-2 with Croatia.
Overall, the H2H record provides an important reason for caution when considering a Czech Republic home win.
Key Statistics
| Stat | Czech Republic | Croatia |
|---|---|---|
| Recent 5-match record | W-W-L-D-L | W-W-W-W-L |
| Wins in last 5 | 2 | 4 |
| Draws in last 5 | 1 | 0 |
| Defeats in last 5 | 2 | 1 |
| Goals scored in last 5 | 7 | 10 |
| Goals conceded in last 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Recent H2H | 0 wins | 2 wins, 3 draws |
| Venue | Fortuna Arena | Away |
The numbers show a clear contrast in recent results. Czech Republic have been inconsistent, while Croatia have won four of their last five matches. At the same time, both sides have conceded regularly, with each allowing eight goals across their respective last five matches.
Match Analysis
Croatia’s recent form gives them the clearest edge in the match-winner market. They have won four of their last five matches and have a long unbeaten H2H record against Czech Republic.
The Czech Republic’s biggest advantage is home ground. However, their preparation has been complicated by a large number of injuries. Several Slavia Prague players originally selected for the squad have withdrawn, while Tomáš Souček is also unavailable according to current squad reporting.
Croatia, in contrast, have selected a highly experienced squad containing Modrić, Kovačić, Gvardiol, Perišić and Kramarić.
The goals markets are also interesting. Czech Republic have conceded eight goals in their last five matches, while Croatia have conceded eight across the same period. A current Goalence model gives BTTS Yes 62% and Over 2.5 Goals 57%, with Croatia projected as the more likely winner and 1-2 among the most likely scorelines.
Forebet’s current model is more cautious on the match result, projecting a 2-2 draw, while giving Over 2.5 goals a 57% probability. This illustrates that the outright result is less certain than the broader goals trends.
Given Croatia’s attacking quality, Czech Republic’s defensive issues and the recent scoring patterns of both teams, a game in which both sides score is a reasonable supporting market.
Czech Republic vs Croatia Prediction
KlinPredict’s prediction: Croatia to Win
Confidence: Moderate
Croatia’s stronger recent form, greater international experience and unbeaten H2H record make them the preferred side in the 1X2 market.
This is not a high-confidence away-win selection because Czech Republic have home advantage and are beginning a new era under Santi Denia. The injuries affecting the Czech squad also make their eventual starting XI difficult to assess with complete certainty before official lineups are released.
The Five Market Predictions Explained
Match Winner: Croatia to Win. Croatia have won four of their last five matches and have never lost to Czech Republic in their five recorded meetings. Their squad also contains substantially more established international experience.
Double Chance: Croatia Win or Draw (X2). This provides additional protection against a Czech Republic home victory. Croatia’s unbeaten H2H record makes X2 a broader selection than backing the away win alone.
Both Teams to Score: Yes. Czech Republic have conceded eight goals across their last five matches, while Croatia have also conceded eight. The current Goalence model gives BTTS Yes a 62% probability.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals: Over 2.5. Both teams have been involved in several matches containing three or more goals recently. The current Goalence model gives Over 2.5 a 57% probability, while Forebet also currently projects a 57% probability for Over 2.5.
Correct Score: 1-2 to Croatia. The 1-2 scoreline reflects Croatia’s stronger recent record while allowing for Czech Republic’s home advantage and their ability to score. Correct-score predictions naturally carry more variance than broader markets.
Final Verdict
Czech Republic begin a new Nations League era at home against a Croatia side with considerably more continuity and international experience. Santi Denia has inherited a team that finished bottom of its 2026 World Cup group, while several players have since withdrawn from the Nations League squad through injury.
Croatia have retained a strong core of experienced players and arrive after winning four of their last five matches. They have also never lost to Czech Republic in their previous five meetings.
The statistical picture also points toward goals rather than a purely defensive contest. Both teams have conceded eight goals in their respective last five matches, and independent models currently put BTTS and Over 2.5 above 50%.
KlinPredict headline prediction: Croatia to Win
Best supporting markets: BTTS — Yes & Over 2.5 Goals
Correct Score: 1-2
Prediction Methodology
This KlinPredict prediction combines recent competitive results, attacking and defensive trends, home advantage, head-to-head history, current squad availability and available pre-match statistical models.
The prediction also accounts for the significant changes to the Czech Republic squad before the September Nations League window, including the withdrawals of several players through injury. Croatia’s experienced squad and recent results provide additional context for the match-winner selection.
Independent models are not unanimous on the exact result. Goalence currently projects Croatia as the more likely winner with a 1-2 scoreline among its leading outcomes, while Forebet currently projects 2-2. These differences demonstrate the uncertainty inherent in an international fixture and mean that model projections should be treated as estimates rather than guarantees.
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