Turkey vs Italy Predictions & Match Preview
KlinPredict brings you this Turkey vs Italy prediction, covering the UEFA Nations League A, Group 1 clash at Bursa Büyükşehir Belediye Stadium (also known as Yüzüncü Yıl Atatürk Stadium) on Monday, September 28, 2026, kickoff 21:45 local time. It’s matchday 2 of the group, and both sides arrive pointless after opening defeats, Turkey lost 1-0 to France, and Italy were beaten 2-0 at home by Belgium.
Turkey vs Italy Match Details
| Competition | UEFA Nations League, League A, Group 1, Matchday 2 |
| Date | Monday, September 28, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 21:45 local time (Bursa) / 20:45 CEST |
| Venue | Bursa Büyükşehir Belediye Stadium (Yüzüncü Yıl Atatürk Stadium), Bursa |
| Home team | Turkey |
| Away team | Italy |
| Referee | Michael Oliver (England) |
KlinPredict’s Key Turkey vs Italy Predictions
| Market | KlinPredict Pick | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Match Winner (1X2) | Turkey to Win | 🟡 Moderate |
| Double Chance | Turkey Win or Draw (1X) | 🟢 Moderate to High |
| Both Teams to Score (BTTS) | No | 🟡 Moderate |
| Over/Under 2.5 Goals | Under 2.5 | 🟢 Moderate to High |
| Correct Score | 1-0 to Turkey | 🟠 Low to Moderate |
What Happened on Matchday 1
Both sides come into this match having lost their opening group game without scoring. Turkey, making their League A debut, held France goalless for almost an hour in Kocaeli before Kylian Mbappé scored the only goal in Zinedine Zidane’s first match in charge of Les Bleus.
Turkey improved after the break and tested Mike Maignan more than once, but goalkeeper Uğurcan Çakır was sent off after a VAR review, so he is suspended for this match and Altay Bayındır is expected to take his place. Italy, meanwhile, lost 2-0 to Belgium at the Stadio Olimpico in Roberto Mancini’s first game back in charge, with Mika Godts scoring on 20 minutes and substitute Dodi Lukebakio adding a second on 69. It was Italy’s first competitive defeat to Belgium since 1972, and Gianluigi Donnarumma needed several saves to keep the scoreline down.
Turkey Form Ahead of Turkey vs Italy
Turkey’s recent form has been patchy. They were eliminated in the group stage of the 2026 World Cup, losing 0-2 to Australia and 0-1 to Paraguay before beating the United States 3-2 in their final match. Since then came the 0-1 defeat to France, meaning Vincenzo Montella’s side have lost three of their last four games. Across his 37 matches in charge before this fixture, Montella has recorded 21 wins, 5 draws and 11 defeats.
Turkey are also without Hakan Çalhanoğlu and Kenan Yıldız through injury, while Orkun Kökçü has been struggling with a toe problem, and Merih Demiral is set to captain the side again with Arda Güler leading the creative work.
Italy Form Ahead of Turkey vs Italy
Italy’s build up has been unsettled. They failed to reach the 2026 World Cup after a 1-1 draw with Bosnia and Herzegovina in the play-off final ended in a 4-1 penalty shootout defeat, having beaten Northern Ireland 2-0 in the semi-final. Interim coach Silvio Baldini then led an experimental side to 1-0 friendly wins over Luxembourg and Greece in June, before Mancini returned as head coach and lost to Belgium. That leaves Italy with three wins from their last five games. Federico Dimarco, Bryan Cristante and Manuel Locatelli are all out injured, though Alessandro Bastoni returns from suspension, and Mateo Retegui was not called up.
Turkey vs Italy H2H: UEFA Nations League Group A1 Table
| Team | Pld | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belgium | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| France | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| Turkey | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| Italy | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
France and Belgium play each other in Brussels on the same night, so this table will change after matchday 2. For live standings, full fixtures, and squad news direct from the competition organiser, see the official UEFA Nations League standings.
Turkey vs Italy Historical Head to Head
In this Turkey vs Italy H2H, Turkey have never beaten Italy. Across 14 previous meetings on record, Italy have won 10 and 4 have been drawn, with Italy scoring 27 goals to Turkey’s 7. The last competitive meeting was the opening game of Euro 2020 in Rome, which Italy won 3-0. Their most recent meeting in Turkey was a 3-2 Italy win in a friendly in Konya in March 2022, and the latest of all was a 0-0 friendly draw in Bologna on June 4, 2024. The two sides meet again in the return fixture at Stadio Renato Dall’Ara in Bologna on October 5.
Turkey vs Italy Match Analysis
Neither side has much to lean on in this match, which is what makes it hard to call. Turkey looked the more coherent team on matchday 1, stayed compact against a star-studded France and now return home, where they also beat Bulgaria 2-0 at this stadium last November. Italy, by contrast, are still adjusting to a new manager and a rebuilt squad, and they are missing three midfield and defensive regulars in Dimarco, Cristante and Locatelli. Against that, Turkey are missing their first-choice goalkeeper and three of their most creative players, and Italy’s unbeaten record against them stretches across every meeting on record. With both teams having failed to score on matchday 1, a tight, low scoring game looks the most likely outcome.
Turkey vs Italy Prediction: Our Verdict
KlinPredict’s headline pick: Turkey to Win
Confidence: Moderate
Home advantage, a more convincing matchday 1 performance and the pressure on a new-look Italy side point towards a narrow Turkey win. It isn’t a high confidence selection because Italy have never lost to Turkey, and Turkey are short of key attacking players and will use a replacement goalkeeper.
The Five Market Predictions Explained
Match Winner: Turkey to Win. A home crowd, a stronger showing against France and Italy’s uncertain start under Mancini give Turkey a slight edge, despite the head to head record.
Double Chance: Turkey Win or Draw (1X). Covers the most likely outcomes given Italy’s long unbeaten run against Turkey and how little separates the two sides right now.
Both Teams to Score: No. Turkey failed to score in three of their last five matches, while Italy kept a clean sheet in three of their last five, and both were shut out on matchday 1.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals: Under 2.5. Fewer than three goals were scored in each of Italy’s last five matches, and both teams are missing key creative players.
Correct Score: 1-0 to Turkey. This reflects a narrow home win in a cagey match, in keeping with both sides’ recent low scoring form.
Final Verdict: Turkey vs Italy Prediction
Italy’s unbeaten record against Turkey is a real obstacle, but a new manager, several injuries and a poor matchday 1 display leave them vulnerable, while a home crowd and a solid performance against France give Turkey the slight edge heading into Bursa.
KlinPredict headline prediction: Turkey to Win
Best supporting markets: Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS: No
Correct Score: 1-0
Prediction Methodology
This Turkey vs Italy prediction draws on matchday 1 results, reported team news including Çakır’s suspension and each side’s injury list, both teams’ recent competitive and friendly form, the 14 match head to head record between the two nations, and the current Group A1 table.
Where information wasn’t confirmed by the sources checked, such as final starting lineups, it has been left out rather than guessed at. All information in this preview is current as of 28 September 2026 and may change closer to kickoff as official team news is confirmed.
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